← Explore · Market 601826

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

35.1% implied · bid 35.1¢ · ask 35.2¢

The market prices this at 35.1%, up 2.3pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability35.1%

Bid / ask / mid35.1¢ / 35.2¢ / 35.1¢

Spread0.1¢ (0.3%)

Change 24h+2.30pt

Change 7d+3.80pt

Deep and tight (score 91/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$59,073

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$56,154 / $25,885

Imbalance1% bid

Large trades (>$1k)5

Liquidity score90.5 / 100

RSI 96 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.4σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean3.38

RSI (14, hourly)95.8

Realized vol 7d0.18pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 39d 23h.

Time to resolve39d 23h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%