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← Explore · Market 601826

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

22.7% implied · bid 22.6¢ · ask 22.7¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 22.7%, up 0.3pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability22.7%
Bid / ask / mid22.6¢ / 22.7¢ / 22.7¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.4%)
Change 24h+0.25pt
Change 7d+0.70pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Deep and tight (score 80/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$21,338
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$37,196 / $23,981
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score80.1 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 13 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.07
RSI (14, hourly)12.5
Realized vol 7d0.11pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 85d 22h.

Time to resolve85d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth