← Explore · Market 601922

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

95.8% implied · bid 95.5¢ · ask 96.0¢

The market prices this at 96.0%, up 0.3pt over 24h, on a 0.5¢ spread.

Implied probability96.0%

Bid / ask / mid95.5¢ / 96.0¢ / 95.8¢

Spread0.5¢ (0.5%)

Change 24h+0.25pt

Change 7d+1.25pt

Deep and tight (score 83/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 34% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$5,318

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,173 / $69,067

Imbalance34% bid

Large trades (>$1k)1

Liquidity score82.6 / 100

RSI 27 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.1σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.08

RSI (14, hourly)26.9

Realized vol 7d0.40pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 85d 21h.

Time to resolve85d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%