← Explore · Market 609655
US recession by end of 2026?
10.0% implied · bid 9.0¢ · ask 11.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 11.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability11.0%
Bid / ask / mid9.0¢ / 11.0¢ / 10.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (20.0%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7d-1.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 2% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,355
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,264 / $523
Imbalance2% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.17
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.30pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 204d 21h.
Time to resolve204d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%