← Explore · Market 628940

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

5.8% implied · bid 5.7¢ · ask 5.8¢

The market prices this at 5.8%, down 0.3pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability5.8%

Bid / ask / mid5.7¢ / 5.8¢ / 5.8¢

Spread0.1¢ (1.7%)

Change 24h-0.35pt

Change 7d-1.95pt

Moderately liquid (score 52/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,964

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,189 / $4,124

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score52.2 / 100

RSI 44 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.41

RSI (14, hourly)44.0

Realized vol 7d0.10pt

Change 1h-0.25pt

Resolves in 115d 21h.

Time to resolve115d 21h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%