← Explore · Market 629040
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
39.4% implied · bid 39.3¢ · ask 39.5¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 39.5%, down 0.7pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.
Implied probability39.5%
Bid / ask / mid39.3¢ / 39.5¢ / 39.4¢
Spread0.2¢ (0.5%)
Change 24h-0.65pt
Change 7d-0.25pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 54/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$9,945
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,176 / $6,121
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score53.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 25 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.29
RSI (14, hourly)25.0
Realized vol 7d0.23pt
Change 1h+0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%