← Explore · Market 637003
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
4.7% implied · bid 4.5¢ · ask 4.9¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 4.6%, up 0.3pt over 24h, on a 0.4¢ spread.
Implied probability4.6%
Bid / ask / mid4.5¢ / 4.9¢ / 4.7¢
Spread0.4¢ (8.5%)
Change 24h+0.30pt
Change 7d-0.60pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$403
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$698 / $233
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.34
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.07pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 91d 21h.
Time to resolve91d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%