← Explore · Market 637003

Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

3.0% implied · bid 3.0¢ · ask 3.1¢

The market prices this at 3.1%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability3.1%

Bid / ask / mid3.0¢ / 3.1¢ / 3.0¢

Spread0.1¢ (3.3%)

Change 24h+0.10pt

Change 7d-0.05pt

Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$176

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$233 / $169

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score49.7 / 100

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.9σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.87

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.01pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 45d 22h.

Time to resolve45d 22h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%