← Explore · Market 637004
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
8.0% implied · bid 7.0¢ · ask 9.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 8.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability8.0%
Bid / ask / mid7.0¢ / 9.0¢ / 8.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (25.0%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7d-0.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 41/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$82
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$638 / $1,112
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score40.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.92
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.18pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 45d 22h.
Time to resolve45d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%