← Explore · Market 637008

Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

4.3% implied · bid 4.3¢ · ask 4.4¢

The market prices this at 4.4%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability4.4%

Bid / ask / mid4.3¢ / 4.4¢ / 4.3¢

Spread0.1¢ (2.3%)

Change 24h+0.00pt

Change 7d+0.10pt

Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$50

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$495 / $186

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score49.8 / 100

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.9σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean2.93

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.01pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 45d 22h.

Time to resolve45d 22h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%