← Explore · Market 637008
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
12.2% implied · bid 11.5¢ · ask 12.8¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 13.0%, up 1.2pt over 24h, on a 1.3¢ spread.
Implied probability13.0%
Bid / ask / mid11.5¢ / 12.8¢ / 12.2¢
Spread1.3¢ (10.7%)
Change 24h+1.20pt
Change 7d-0.15pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$542
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$73 / $343
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score43.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 77 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.6σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.56
RSI (14, hourly)76.9
Realized vol 7d0.32pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 91d 21h.
Time to resolve91d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%