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← Explore · Market 637011

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

8.0% implied · bid 7.9¢ · ask 8.1¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 8.2%, down 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.

Implied probability8.2%
Bid / ask / mid7.9¢ / 8.1¢ / 8.0¢
Spread0.2¢ (2.5%)
Change 24h-0.05pt
Change 7d-2.65pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$3,537
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$783 / $1,586
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score50.2 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 26 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.38
RSI (14, hourly)26.3
Realized vol 7d0.13pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 91d 21h.

Time to resolve91d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth