← Explore · Market 648383
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
30.0% implied · bid 29.0¢ · ask 31.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 31.0%, down 3.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability31.0%
Bid / ask / mid29.0¢ / 31.0¢ / 30.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (6.7%)
Change 24h-3.50pt
Change 7d-3.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$14,552
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,225 / $5,341
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score43.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 3.3σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-3.35
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.18pt
Change 1h-2.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 115d 21h.
Time to resolve115d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%