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← Explore · Market 665265

Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2026?

54.0% implied · bid 51.0¢ · ask 57.0¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 51.0%, up 5.5pt over 24h, on a 6.0¢ spread.

Implied probability51.0%
Bid / ask / mid51.0¢ / 57.0¢ / 54.0¢
Spread6.0¢ (11.1%)
Change 24h+5.50pt
Change 7d+13.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 20/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 40% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$336
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$435 / $33
Imbalance40% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score20.2 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 48 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.13
RSI (14, hourly)48.0
Realized vol 7d1.77pt
Change 1h+1.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 173d 21h.

Time to resolve173d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth