← Explore · Market 665513
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
16.5% implied · bid 16.0¢ · ask 17.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 17.0%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability17.0%
Bid / ask / mid16.0¢ / 17.0¢ / 16.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (6.1%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d-1.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 55/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$4,678
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,867 / $15,270
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)1
Liquidity score55.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.08
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.18pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 127d 22h.
Time to resolve127d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%