a Refacto tool
AdvertisementYour banner here · 728 × 90 · ads@refacto.app

← Explore · Market 676829

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

70.0% implied · bid 69.0¢ · ask 71.0¢

☆ Log in to track

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 71.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.

Implied probability71.0%
Bid / ask / mid69.0¢ / 71.0¢ / 70.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (2.9%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7d-13.50pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 43/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 16% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$720
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,408 / $2,637
Imbalance16% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score43.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.31
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.80pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 129d 3h.

Time to resolve129d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth