← Explore · Market 677366
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
93.0% implied · bid 93.0¢ · ask 93.1¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 93.0%, down 0.4pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability93.0%
Bid / ask / mid93.0¢ / 93.1¢ / 93.0¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.1%)
Change 24h-0.40pt
Change 7d+7.55pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 97/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 35% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$4,724
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$22,620 / $72,265
Imbalance35% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score96.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 59 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.21
RSI (14, hourly)59.4
Realized vol 7d0.66pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 174d 9h.
Time to resolve174d 9h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%