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← Explore · Market 678747

Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?

53.8% implied · bid 52.7¢ · ask 54.8¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 52.7%, up 10.4pt over 24h, on a 2.1¢ spread.

Implied probability52.7%
Bid / ask / mid52.7¢ / 54.8¢ / 53.8¢
Spread2.1¢ (3.9%)
Change 24h+10.40pt
Change 7d-6.35pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 40/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$3,414
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$92 / $86
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score39.6 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean0.42
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d1.34pt
Change 1h+0.20pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 173d 21h.

Time to resolve173d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth