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← Explore · Market 678748

Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?

28.9% implied · bid 27.0¢ · ask 30.8¢

A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 29.6%, down 0.8pt over 24h, on a 3.8¢ spread.

Implied probability29.6%
Bid / ask / mid27.0¢ / 30.8¢ / 28.9¢
Spread3.8¢ (13.1%)
Change 24h-0.75pt
Change 7d+0.45pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 31/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$2,633
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$70 / $18
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score31.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 23 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.

Z-score vs 7d mean-0.51
RSI (14, hourly)22.6
Realized vol 7d1.34pt
Change 1h-0.50pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 173d 21h.

Time to resolve173d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth