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← Explore · Market 678748

Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?

10.9% implied · bid 7.8¢ · ask 14.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 10.1%, down 1.3pt over 24h, on a 6.2¢ spread.

Implied probability10.1%
Bid / ask / mid7.8¢ / 14.0¢ / 10.9¢
Spread6.2¢ (56.9%)
Change 24h-1.35pt
Change 7d-8.95pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Thin (score 19/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$65
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$42 / $25
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score19.0 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 34 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.8σ — an unusually large move.

Z-score vs 7d mean-2.84
RSI (14, hourly)33.7
Realized vol 7d0.53pt
Change 1h+0.75pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 127d 22h.

Time to resolve127d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth