← Explore · Market 679019

Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?

5.1% implied · bid 5.1¢ · ask 5.2¢

The market prices this at 4.8%, down 0.2pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.

Implied probability4.8%

Bid / ask / mid5.1¢ / 5.2¢ / 5.1¢

Spread0.1¢ (1.9%)

Change 24h-0.20pt

Change 7d-20.35pt

Moderately liquid (score 52/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$26,410

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,258 / $1,182

Imbalance0% bid

Large trades (>$1k)2

Liquidity score51.7 / 100

RSI 43 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean-1.46

RSI (14, hourly)43.3

Realized vol 7d1.54pt

Change 1h+0.40pt

Resolves in 293d 22h.

Time to resolve293d 22h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%