← Explore · Market 679030

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?

11.5% implied · bid 11.0¢ · ask 12.0¢

The market prices this at 12.0%, down 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability12.0%

Bid / ask / mid11.0¢ / 12.0¢ / 11.5¢

Spread1.0¢ (8.7%)

Change 24h-1.00pt

Change 7d+0.00pt

Deep and tight (score 88/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$8,208

Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$66,365 / $19,750

Imbalance4% bid

Large trades (>$1k)0

Liquidity score88.1 / 100

RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.05

RSI (14, hourly)50.0

Realized vol 7d0.37pt

Change 1h+0.00pt

Resolves in 293d 22h.

Time to resolve293d 22h

Resolution sourceunknown

Sum of outcomes100.0%