← Explore · Market 679030
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
14.5% implied · bid 14.0¢ · ask 15.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 15.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability15.0%
Bid / ask / mid14.0¢ / 15.0¢ / 14.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (6.9%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d+1.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 54/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$21,740
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$13,188 / $5,663
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score54.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.9σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean2.88
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.13pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 247d 23h.
Time to resolve247d 23h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%