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← Explore · Market 681144

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

10.5% implied · bid 10.0¢ · ask 11.0¢

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A · Price & probability

The market prices this at 10.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.

Implied probability10.0%
Bid / ask / mid10.0¢ / 11.0¢ / 10.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (9.5%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d+2.00pt

B · Liquidity & flow

Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).

Volume 24h$8,324
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,230 / $529
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score45.9 / 100

C · Momentum & volatility

RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — a mild deviation.

Z-score vs 7d mean1.98
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.30pt
Change 1h+0.00pt

E · Time & structure

Resolves in 129d 3h.

Time to resolve129d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%

Price history

Probability timeline

Order-book depth