← Explore · Market 681144
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
10.5% implied · bid 10.0¢ · ask 11.0¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 10.0%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability10.0%
Bid / ask / mid10.0¢ / 11.0¢ / 10.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (9.5%)
Change 24h+1.00pt
Change 7d+2.00pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$8,324
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,230 / $529
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)2
Liquidity score45.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 2.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.98
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.30pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 129d 3h.
Time to resolve129d 3h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%