← Explore · Market 690200
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?
7.8% implied · bid 7.1¢ · ask 8.4¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 5.0%, down 0.2pt over 24h, on a 1.3¢ spread.
Implied probability5.0%
Bid / ask / mid7.1¢ / 8.4¢ / 7.8¢
Spread1.3¢ (16.8%)
Change 24h-0.15pt
Change 7d-0.45pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 44/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$83 / $182
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score43.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 17.7σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-17.73
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.09pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 173d 21h.
Time to resolve173d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%