← Explore · Market 692259
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?
17.5% implied · bid 17.0¢ · ask 18.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 17.0%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability17.0%
Bid / ask / mid17.0¢ / 18.0¢ / 17.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (5.7%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7d+1.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$375 / $163
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.10
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.62pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 173d 21h.
Time to resolve173d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%