← Explore · Market 704364
Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?
81.5% implied · bid 80.1¢ · ask 83.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 82.7%, up 12.3pt over 24h, on a 2.9¢ spread.
Implied probability82.7%
Bid / ask / mid80.1¢ / 83.0¢ / 81.5¢
Spread2.9¢ (3.6%)
Change 24h+12.25pt
Change 7d+27.55pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 36/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 51% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$4,928
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$687 / $34
Imbalance51% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 82 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean3.09
RSI (14, hourly)82.2
Realized vol 7d1.44pt
Change 1h+1.45pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 24d 21h.
Time to resolve24d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%