← Explore · Market 704367
Will Daniel Keenan be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?
16.0% implied · bid 12.0¢ · ask 20.0¢
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 18.0%, down 11.5pt over 24h, on a 8.0¢ spread.
Implied probability18.0%
Bid / ask / mid12.0¢ / 20.0¢ / 16.0¢
Spread8.0¢ (50.0%)
Change 24h-11.50pt
Change 7d-30.50pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 10/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,706
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$10 / $274
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score10.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 21 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.4σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.39
RSI (14, hourly)21.4
Realized vol 7d1.75pt
Change 1h-2.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 24d 21h.
Time to resolve24d 21h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%