← Explore · Market 789953
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
9.4% implied · bid 9.2¢ · ask 9.6¢
☆ Log in to trackA · Price & probability
The market prices this at 9.4%, down 0.3pt over 24h, on a 0.4¢ spread.
Implied probability9.4%
Bid / ask / mid9.2¢ / 9.6¢ / 9.4¢
Spread0.4¢ (4.3%)
Change 24h-0.30pt
Change 7d-5.75pt
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,109 / $161
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 18 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.42
RSI (14, hourly)18.2
Realized vol 7d0.26pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 25d 22h.
Time to resolve25d 22h
Resolution sourceunknown
Sum of outcomes100.0%