← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-34JAN01-T4.25
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033 be above 4.25%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 37.0%, down 6.5pt over 24h, on a 37.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 36 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 2618d 16h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
⚠ Single sourceSummary
If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2033, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 4.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.