← Explore · Kalshi · Market KXFEDFUNDSYEAR-37JAN01-T2.00
Will the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2036 be above 2.00%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 95.0%, up 4.0pt over 24h, on a 50.0¢ spread.
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 100% to the bid (buyers).
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 92 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 10.1σ — an unusually large move.
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 3714d 16h.
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Summary
If the upper bound of the target range for the federal funds rate in effect at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2036, as published on the Federal Reserve’s official website, is above 2.00%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Expanded rules
If the Federal Reserve specifies a single target rate rather than a target range, that target rate will be used.