← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1005345
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 78.0%, up 34.5pt over 24h, on a 7.0¢ spread.
Implied probability78.0%
Bid / ask / mid70.0¢ / 77.0¢ / 73.5¢
Spread7.0¢ (9.5%)
Change 24h+34.50pt
Change 7d+45.00pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 15/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$13,982
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7 / $491
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score15.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 61 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.7σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean3.72
RSI (14, hourly)60.7
Realized vol 7d2.89pt
Change 1h-25.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.