← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1005346
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 33.0%, up 22.8pt over 24h, on a 0.4¢ spread.
Implied probability33.0%
Bid / ask / mid32.3¢ / 32.7¢ / 32.5¢
Spread0.4¢ (1.2%)
Change 24h+22.80pt
Change 7d+26.30pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,852
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1 / $210
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 60 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 4.3σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean4.35
RSI (14, hourly)60.0
Realized vol 7d1.75pt
Change 1h-3.40pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.