← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1087312
Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 7.5%, up 2.7pt over 24h, on a 5.5¢ spread.
Implied probability7.5%
Bid / ask / mid2.6¢ / 8.1¢ / 5.3¢
Spread5.5¢ (102.8%)
Change 24h+2.70pt
Change 7d+3.40pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 23/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$12 / $43
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score22.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 52 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 4.2σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean4.24
RSI (14, hourly)51.6
Realized vol 7d1.07pt
Change 1h+2.70pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 85d 15h.
Time to resolve85d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.