← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1105744
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 91.9%, up 0.0pt over 24h, on a 0.6¢ spread.
Implied probability91.9%
Bid / ask / mid91.2¢ / 91.8¢ / 91.5¢
Spread0.6¢ (0.7%)
Change 24h+0.00pt
Change 7d+7.65pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 97/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 8% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$14,010
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$60,134 / $189,203
Imbalance8% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score97.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.3σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.26
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.35pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.