← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1132823
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 30% and 34.9%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 87.9%, up 12.8pt over 24h, on a 8.6¢ spread.
Implied probability87.9%
Bid / ask / mid78.0¢ / 86.6¢ / 82.3¢
Spread8.6¢ (10.4%)
Change 24h+12.80pt
Change 7d+12.10pt
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 7/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 4% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$814
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$58 / $174
Imbalance4% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score7.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 10.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean10.13
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.93pt
Change 1h+1.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 64d 15h.
Time to resolve64d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.