← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1132824
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 25% and 29.9%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 13.0%, down 7.0pt over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability13.0%
Bid / ask / mid10.0¢ / 13.0¢ / 11.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (26.1%)
Change 24h-7.00pt
Change 7d-5.00pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$497
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$49 / $26
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 11 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.3σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.29
RSI (14, hourly)11.1
Realized vol 7d0.91pt
Change 1h+1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 64d 15h.
Time to resolve64d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.