← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1132825
Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 35% and 39.9%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 1.0%, down 0.6pt over 24h, on a 6.2¢ spread.
Implied probability1.0%
Bid / ask / mid1.1¢ / 7.3¢ / 4.2¢
Spread6.2¢ (147.6%)
Change 24h-0.60pt
Change 7d-0.10pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 19/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$25
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$28 / $1
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score19.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 47 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.6σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.57
RSI (14, hourly)46.9
Realized vol 7d0.65pt
Change 1h-0.85pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 64d 15h.
Time to resolve64d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.