← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1163699
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.4%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability2.4%
Bid / ask / mid2.3¢ / 2.4¢ / 2.4¢
Spread0.1¢ (4.3%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7d-0.75pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 54/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$9,579
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5,415 / $3,680
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score54.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.52
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.19pt
Change 1h-0.10pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (55)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.