← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1193093
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 54.3%, up 21.6pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability54.3%
Bid / ask / mid56.4¢ / 56.5¢ / 56.5¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.2%)
Change 24h+21.60pt
Change 7d+30.95pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 56/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 11% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$117,076
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$6,050 / $6,223
Imbalance11% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score55.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 65 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 3.5σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean3.55
RSI (14, hourly)64.8
Realized vol 7d2.18pt
Change 1h+9.20pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.