← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1193103
Will Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 0.4%, up 0.3pt over 24h, on a 0.3¢ spread.
Implied probability0.4%
Bid / ask / mid0.2¢ / 0.5¢ / 0.4¢
Spread0.3¢ (85.7%)
Change 24h+0.30pt
Change 7d-0.95pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 49/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$44,713
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$49 / $301
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 88 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.49
RSI (14, hourly)87.5
Realized vol 7d0.13pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.