← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1279604
Will the Republican Party win the AK-AL House seat?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 95.4%, up 0.2pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.
Implied probability95.4%
Bid / ask / mid95.6¢ / 95.8¢ / 95.7¢
Spread0.2¢ (0.2%)
Change 24h+0.20pt
Change 7d+18.20pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 71/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 54% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$7,759
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$8,570 / $35,536
Imbalance54% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score71.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 67 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.23
RSI (14, hourly)66.7
Realized vol 7d4.93pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.