← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1281084
Will the Republican Party win the CA-23 House seat?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 95.6%, up 2.7pt over 24h, on a 1.4¢ spread.
Implied probability95.6%
Bid / ask / mid95.6¢ / 97.0¢ / 96.3¢
Spread1.4¢ (1.5%)
Change 24h+2.70pt
Change 7d+0.00pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 76% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$7,236
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$6,443 / $7,626
Imbalance76% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score50.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 69 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.54
RSI (14, hourly)69.0
Realized vol 7d4.41pt
Change 1h+0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.