← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1282880
Will the Republican Party win the CO-04 House seat?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 3.7%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 1.4¢ spread.
Implied probability3.7%
Bid / ask / mid1.3¢ / 2.7¢ / 2.0¢
Spread1.4¢ (70.0%)
Change 24h+0.10pt
Change 7d-57.50pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 43/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$4,804
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$15 / $976
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score43.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 10 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.00
RSI (14, hourly)10.3
Realized vol 7d3.26pt
Change 1h+0.15pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.