← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1282881
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-04 House seat?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 97.2%, up 0.6pt over 24h, on a 1.5¢ spread.
Implied probability97.2%
Bid / ask / mid97.3¢ / 98.8¢ / 98.0¢
Spread1.5¢ (1.5%)
Change 24h+0.55pt
Change 7d+58.05pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 58/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 65% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$5,278
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$14,020 / $17,556
Imbalance65% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score58.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 60 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.05
RSI (14, hourly)60.2
Realized vol 7d3.19pt
Change 1h-0.20pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.