← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1283144
Will the Republican Party win the FL-27 House seat?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 98.9%, down 0.8pt over 24h, on a 0.8¢ spread.
Implied probability98.9%
Bid / ask / mid97.7¢ / 98.5¢ / 98.1¢
Spread0.8¢ (0.8%)
Change 24h-0.75pt
Change 7d+34.60pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 52/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 83% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$6,472
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5,739 / $5,723
Imbalance83% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score51.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 51 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.15
RSI (14, hourly)51.4
Realized vol 7d2.32pt
Change 1h-0.20pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.