← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1284009
Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 20.0%, down 1.3pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability20.0%
Bid / ask / mid19.8¢ / 19.9¢ / 19.9¢
Spread0.1¢ (0.5%)
Change 24h-1.35pt
Change 7d-43.15pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 52/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$24,517
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$845 / $3,654
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score51.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 45 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.18
RSI (14, hourly)44.9
Realized vol 7d7.45pt
Change 1h+0.85pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.