← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1284010
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 80.0%, up 1.5pt over 24h, on a 0.4¢ spread.
Implied probability80.0%
Bid / ask / mid79.5¢ / 79.9¢ / 79.7¢
Spread0.4¢ (0.5%)
Change 24h+1.45pt
Change 7d+44.20pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 59/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 49% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$23,630
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$12,368 / $10,510
Imbalance49% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score59.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 53 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.18
RSI (14, hourly)52.5
Realized vol 7d7.51pt
Change 1h+0.15pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.