← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1356656
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 93.5%, down 0.0pt over 24h, on a 1.3¢ spread.
Implied probability93.5%
Bid / ask / mid93.4¢ / 94.7¢ / 94.0¢
Spread1.3¢ (1.4%)
Change 24h-0.05pt
Change 7d+0.30pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 65/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 42% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$200
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$13,204 / $30,241
Imbalance42% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score65.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 40 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.42
RSI (14, hourly)40.0
Realized vol 7d0.09pt
Change 1h-0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 419d 15h.
Time to resolve419d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules risklow (15)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.