← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1393317
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 99.4%, down 0.8pt over 24h, on a 0.9¢ spread.
Implied probability99.4%
Bid / ask / mid98.0¢ / 98.9¢ / 98.5¢
Spread0.9¢ (0.9%)
Change 24h-0.80pt
Change 7d-0.35pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 59/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 65% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$311
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$8,464 / $18,665
Imbalance65% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score59.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 83 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.22
RSI (14, hourly)83.3
Realized vol 7d0.11pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 419d 15h.
Time to resolve419d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.