← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1393318
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 97.7%, up 1.0pt over 24h, on a 0.9¢ spread.
Implied probability97.7%
Bid / ask / mid97.7¢ / 98.6¢ / 98.2¢
Spread0.9¢ (0.9%)
Change 24h+0.95pt
Change 7d-0.80pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 71/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 43% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$407
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7,909 / $43,466
Imbalance43% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score71.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.2σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.20
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.17pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 419d 15h.
Time to resolve419d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (0)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.