← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1394086
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.3%, up 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability2.3%
Bid / ask / mid2.2¢ / 2.3¢ / 2.3¢
Spread0.1¢ (4.4%)
Change 24h+0.15pt
Change 7d-2.25pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 51/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$10,224
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,255 / $1,248
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score50.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 100 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.51
RSI (14, hourly)100.0
Realized vol 7d0.17pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.