← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1395451
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 14% and 16%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 79.7%, up 12.8pt over 24h, on a 4.1¢ spread.
Implied probability79.7%
Bid / ask / mid85.2¢ / 89.3¢ / 87.3¢
Spread4.1¢ (4.7%)
Change 24h+12.75pt
Change 7d+82.85pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 33/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 52% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$13,618
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,262 / $4,857
Imbalance52% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score33.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 71 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.8σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.85
RSI (14, hourly)70.9
Realized vol 7d7.21pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.