← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1395452
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 12% and 14%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 11.6%, down 11.3pt over 24h, on a 3.1¢ spread.
Implied probability11.6%
Bid / ask / mid8.1¢ / 11.2¢ / 9.7¢
Spread3.1¢ (32.1%)
Change 24h-11.30pt
Change 7d-6.15pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$17,626
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$532 / $756
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 29 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.8σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.75
RSI (14, hourly)28.9
Realized vol 7d5.26pt
Change 1h-0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.