← Explore · Polymarket · Market 1399396
Will there be between 115m and 120m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 11.0%, down 4.9pt over 24h, on a 5.5¢ spread.
Implied probability11.0%
Bid / ask / mid1.3¢ / 6.8¢ / 4.0¢
Spread5.5¢ (135.8%)
Change 24h-4.95pt
Change 7d-21.95pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 23/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$7,792
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4 / $58
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score22.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 25 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.36
RSI (14, hourly)25.4
Realized vol 7d3.40pt
Change 1h+0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (30)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.